Mon Sep 04 2017 07:39 PM
Re: Low in SW Gulf

The trof in the southwest GOM is trying to close off - at least near the surface - based on recent satellite trends (as we have not had a recent scatterometer pass to look down at the surface). This Low will likely be designated Invest 95L soon.

Wind shear could be just supportive enough to allow continued organization over the next few days as to allow some meaningful development to occur, and a named storm is possible. Modeling strongly suggests that the US Gulf states north southernmost Texas should be spared any impacts - that this is and will be more of a threat for Mexico - at least in the near to mid range. Beyond seven days there are some indications it could loop back around towards the US, but that remains almost a long shot.

Potential for downstream impacts on Irma track and intensity are TBD.

Maximum sustained winds based on available buoy and ship reports appear to be on the rise - now up to about 30 knots - and pressures are falling. If this low sufficiently closes off and becomes defined at the surface overnight tonight, it is conceivable it could be an officiated TD as soon as tomorrow morning.

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