(Weather Guru)
Wed Sep 06 2017 05:03 PM
Re: HUR IRMA Lounge


I'm not sure if it's been mentioned already, but the one thing that I don't really understand is that regardless of the trajectory that each model run has produced in regards to possible paths, ALL of the models have projected continued increase in strength all the way and up to either landfall or the the eventual turn poleward, yet the NHC has consistently forecasted the weakening of the system toward the end of the runs.

Most of these models are pretty terrible at forecasting strength with any precision. There is one model which has been much more accurate at strength forecast. I forget which model that is, but the NHC has all the models at its disposal and tries to use the relative merits of each model to come up with the forecast. And remember, none of these going to turn out to be totally accurate.

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