cieldumort
(Moderator)
Sun Sep 10 2017 02:21 PM
Re: HURRICANE IRMA LOUNGE

Irma is being looped around (and eventually to within) the mid/upper-level vort diving down from the northwest. Center fixes show Irma to be bending back to the left a little as she gains latitude, and it is possible that she skirts western Florida with several landfalls.


It is growing apparent that the very gradual transition into a sub-tropical and eventually post-tropical cyclone is now underway, with dry air infiltrating Irma from the west, reducing not only precip (as can be seen on radar - not shown here), but the intensity of her winds in the western semicircle - perhaps by as much as a full category in addition to the half to full category that is already commonly reduced on that side of a TC (See recon data below - courtesy Tropical Tidbits).

The earliest beginnings of extra-tropical transition (going to take days to complete), along with how that mid-upper low is pinwheeling Irma around to the NNW-NW, is made clear in the water vapor image below





Image Credit: Tropical Tidbits

Irma is now a Cat III on the Saffir-Simpson wind scale. The Saffir-Simpson is not a measure of a hurricane's overall capacity to do damage. Remember, Katrina was a Cat III when she made her historic landfall near Buras-Triumph, Louisiana, and Ike was 'only' a Cat II when he made landfall over Galveston, Texas, yet these two TCs were some of the most destructive in history.



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