(Weather Guru)
Sun Sep 17 2017 11:23 PM
Re: HURRICANE Maria Lounge

The only good thing I can think of is that most of the model guidance suggest a track that should stay a little south of the islands that got crushed by Irma. The bad thing is that most of the models are calling for Maria to strengthen explosively as it approaches the islands - some suggesting a 20 - 25 mb drop in pressure in the last 12 hours before moving through the islands. It appears Dominica is pretty much in the crosshairs of the spot where Maria pushes through the Lesser Antilles (supported by the NHC forecast - 71% chance of hurricane force winds). I was on a cruise a while back that called in Dominica and got to see some of the island and I don't think most of the houses would survive a strong tropical storm, let alone a cat 4 hurricane. I am really worried of a major catastrophe if they were to take a direct hit from this.

Beyond that the models start to fan out but generally indicate St. Croix and eastern Puerto Rico as the most likely areas to get hit then maybe the Turks and Caicos (which did get hit by Irma). 0Z runs should be interesting.

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