Tue Sep 19 2017 05:54 AM
Re: 96L Lounge

0z gfs and euro take Maria over Puerto Rico and the Euro takes it close, but not over the Turks and Caicos, before turning it out to sea. Closest approach to the US is on Wednesday the 27th, but both models keep it well east of the US for now.

Models are generally in good agreement out to 5 days or so, so it is very likely this one stays away from the continental US. We'll keep monitoring it for that, though, particularly for the trends (Mid Atlantic/NE would have highest risk, Florida is extremely unlikely) With the strong trof approaching the east coast next week, it's fairly safe bet this won't directly affect the continental US. Large Surf/swells will continue to be a problem though, Jose is already causing that.

Puerto Rico/VI impacts would be Tomorrow and Thursday. The 6z GFS takes it over St Croix Wednesday early morning, then eastern Puerto Rico later that day.

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