An area of disturbed weather associated with a tropical wave and mid-level trof, presently centered just south of Cuba at the time of this post, is in a slightly favorable environment for slow development over the next 48 hours, and potentially modestly favorable environment overall over the course of the next five days as it tracks north, and then possibly northwest or west.

This feature is not yet Invest tagged, but NHC has highlighted it within its TWOs today, and gives it a 20% chance of becoming a tropical or subtropical cyclone within 120 hours.

Regardless of development, this disturbance will likely enhance rains across Cuba, the Bahamas and Florida for the next several days, and we are now watching it closely for any signs of development. Presently, model support is lukewarm, with the ECMWF, GFS, GEM and others on board for at least some slow cooking. Stay tuned.

Title updated to reflect Invest tag - Ciel