GFS, its ensembles and like-minded model runs (may) be mishandling the trof southeast of Florida... running it further west, whereas the Euro and like minded runs intensify Cuba/Bahamas trof, and allow it to turn more northerly ... possibly even riding up off the Florida east coast. Without the more northwesterly tug induced by the aforementioned trof as runs like the GFS sees it, 16 (Nate) is more likely to respond to its own more NNW oriented associated trof.

Pay attention to what the feature over central/eastern Cuba does in the next 48 hours for additional clues.

Edited 'appear to be' with 'may be,' which is more accurate.