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I was watching Tom Terry on CH 9 this evening. He was showing the GFS and EURO models. EURO was right / East towards Appalachia bay area. The GFS was more towards to LA area. Further more, from NHC 5p discussion: While there is some agreement on the synoptic pattern, the model track agreement is rather poor, even in the short term, with the GFS and ECMWF being 90 miles apart on the forecast track as soon as 24 hours out. This has profound differences down the road, with the GFS-based guidance moving considerably faster and to the left of the ECMWF and UKMET across the Gulf of Mexico. Overall, the guidance has generally shifted a bit westward since the last cycle, so the latest points in the long range have been adjusted in that direction. At this point, I wouldn't focus too much attention on the details of the long-range forecast until the guidance comes into better agreement. A G-IV mission and Florida special soundings have been set up for tomorrow to better determine the synoptic steering flow around the cyclone. It looks rather fluid. |