CFHC
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| Wed Nov 02 2022 03:30 PM |
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Nicole Forecast Lounge
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This low may form next week, but it being so large, not sure which part will consolidate, may be weak, but could drive a lot of rain/wind toward the Bahamas and potentially Florida or the Southeast. Rip Currents, coastal flooding may occur as well.
It has a 20% chance to develop over the next 5 days right now.
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Fri Nov 04 2022 04:34 AM |
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Re: Large Low Near Greater Antilles
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0z gfs today is showing it more concentrated as it crosses over the Bahamas, and makes landfall near Miami as atrong tropical storm (weighted toward the north/right) and then crosses over to Tampa as a Tropical Storm.
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Fri Nov 04 2022 06:12 PM |
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Re: Large Low Near Greater Antilles
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12z gfs today showing a cat 2 landfall in south Florida next Thursday, other models keep it a bit more broad, but it's definitely worth watching the system near the Bahamas.
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Fri Nov 04 2022 10:57 PM |
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Re: Large Low Near Greater Antilles
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18z hits the treasure coast with an even stronger cat 2 early thursday morning. Euro is weaker, but takes it over Florida Wednesday afternoon.
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Sat Nov 05 2022 04:14 AM |
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Re: Large Low Near Greater Antilles
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0z gfs is more in line with the euro, but a little slower, much weaker on this newer run.
| MichaelA |
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| Sat Nov 05 2022 07:12 PM |
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Re: Large Low Near Greater Antilles
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It’s really interesting that the models are locking onto this so early and well before any signs of development. The current environment doesn’t look very conducive to development right now either. We’ll see what and if anything will materialize in about 48 hours or so. At any rate, keep an eye on it.
| TanukiMario |
| (Registered User) |
| Sun Nov 06 2022 12:27 PM |
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Re: Large Low Near Greater Antilles
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This morning's models seem to be converging on a system of some sort impacting South Florida on Thursday.
I thought we were done for the year ...
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Sun Nov 06 2022 12:31 PM |
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Re: Large Low Near Greater Antilles
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6z gfs has a cat 2 (approaching 3) arriving in South Florida near Boca pre-dawn Thursday morning.
0z Euro has a weaker system (TS or Cat 1) arriving in S. Florida near Boca Thursday morning
0z Canadian has a cat 1 scraping the coast near Flagler Beach then heading out along the coast (nearly clipping the outer Banks)
6z Icon has a cat 1 landfall near Melbourne pre-dawn Thursday morning.
| kapSt.Cloud |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sun Nov 06 2022 04:50 PM |
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Re: Large Low Near Greater Antilles
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Mike, people need to pay attention to the cone this time. They didn’t with Ian and needless deaths were the result! As of now the models are all over the place. Skirting Florida’s east coast, crossing Florida and into the Gulf taking it into the big bend, or even into Mississippi/ Alabama, etc. This one is similar to Frances & Jean.
I’m aware this is the Forecast Lounge, but Mike I have to write the following in order to warn against complacency. People have to realize these storms have a mind of their own when it comes to strength at landfall. Zeta in 2020, according to the Weather Channel was to hit Mississippi with a Cat 1, 74 mph winds. She shocked everyone when making landfall as a low Cat 3! I’ll never forget Jim Cantore on the WC saying “I can’t wrap my head around this one! Cold water on the bottom, cold air on top and it increased to a Cat 3 at landfall!â€
At the time I lived across the street from the Gulf, but happened to be in Florida. My daughter was in my house and experienced the frightening ordeal of hearing part of my metal roof peeling back, the house on 16†concrete piers shaking, objects hitting the house, storm rain coming through the front door as if there wasn’t a door! I was on the phone with her when it hit! She grabbed my Yorkie and ran for the interior pantry. Thank God my neighbor took them in for 6 days as they had a whole house generator.
U.S. 90 became part of the Gulf. Zeta also caused many interior tornadoes which did tremendous damage to structures. So folks, pay heed to the warnings. Keep your eyes on the cone. And…if told to evacuate…EVACUATE!! Those who survived Camille in Mississippi and didn’t evacuate during Katrina…didn’t survive.
| OrlandoDan |
| (Weather Master) |
| Mon Nov 07 2022 03:01 PM |
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Re: Large Low Near Greater Antilles
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Best to keep a constant watch on this one. It's too soon after Ian. East Central Florida is still underwater.
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CFHC
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| Mon Nov 07 2022 04:06 PM |
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Re: Nicole Forecast Lounge
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Hurricane watches up, 12z gfs has it in coming as a tropical storm now, however, but the official forecast is a hurricane. It's probably going to be borderline. Sut still quite a strong wind gradient north of it regardless so coastal flooding/surge is going to be a big issue on the east coast (and maybe part of the NE Gulf around the Big Bend)
| JMII |
| (Weather Master) |
| Mon Nov 07 2022 04:24 PM |
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Re: Nicole Forecast Lounge
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Given its current structure its hard to believe this becoming at Cat 2 or even a Cat 1... but that's why I don't work for the NHC.
As I said in the other post - late season storms always come from the SW not the E, so this is a very odd track but the models all agree. Being sub-tropical the TS wind field is massive, the NHC has it 275 out from the center (all to the E right now). If accurate this means the nearly the whole E coast of FL will get TS winds. So our trailer in St James City got flooded now our condo in Vero is going to get it... UGH.
| kapSt.Cloud |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Mon Nov 07 2022 05:54 PM |
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Re: Nicole Forecast Lounge
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According to the NHC Nicole is expected to “merge with a cold front by the middle part of this week.†IMO, not soon enough. Read above what I wrote about Zeta which hit LA & MS on Oct. 28-29, 2020. Never depend on weather forecasters’s reports as being gospel. Zeta became a Cat 1 and was not expected to intensify. Not much to be concerned about as we are Floridians and at the time living in Long Beach, MS across the street from the Gulf. Zeta proved to us hurricanes can be sneaky and she belied the “confirmed†NHC reports by becoming a low Cat 3 at landfall!
Nicole is expected to become a hurricane. How strong at landfall? Cat 1? Cat 2? or maybe another Zeta? Who knows for certain? You are more knowledgeable about the weather than I am so your statement about “late season storms always come from the SW not the E†could turn out to be a blessing with Nicole. At this time of year the Atlantic waters are cooler than the Gulf waters.
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Mon Nov 07 2022 06:35 PM |
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Re: Nicole Forecast Lounge
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One of the challenging things about this is the pressure gradient with the high around Virginia, which may drive up winds higher than typical for the TS pressure on the north side. Which is what I'm concerned about the most. I.e. pressure may be 990, but you still get cat 1 winds because of the gradient. If it dips to low 80s or mid 70s, cat 2 becomes possible, that added with the really wide wind field on the north means a ton of surge flooding along the coast.
| JMII |
| (Weather Master) |
| Mon Nov 07 2022 06:45 PM |
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Re: Nicole Forecast Lounge
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Quote:
At this time of year the Atlantic waters are cooler than the Gulf waters.
Yes this storm 2 months ago would be 10X more worrisome.
Based on observations Nicole is trending south of forecast however this "S" approach is going to make figuring out landfall very tricky. Normally tropical systems will curve and you wait for that turn. With this projected path there are two turns, if either of these turns are early or late the center's exact location will be very different - so "watching the line" truly doesn't apply here - anywhere between Miami and Daytona doesn't matter as the weather will be similar however it will be stronger on the N side just due to onshore flow.
| Reef Road Rick |
| (Registered User) |
| Mon Nov 07 2022 08:30 PM |
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Re: Nicole Forecast Lounge
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As Nicole approaches the Florida east coast it crosses very warm Bahamian waters and don't forget about the Gulfstream and all the calories there. So just sayin - don't count out a late intensification before landfall.
| IsoFlame |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Mon Nov 07 2022 08:34 PM |
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Re: Nicole Forecast Lounge
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Quote:
One of the challenging things about this is the pressure gradient with the high around Virginia, which may drive up winds higher than typical for the TS pressure on the north side. Which is what I'm concerned about the most. I.e. pressure may be 990, but you still get cat 1 winds because of the gradient. If it dips to low 80s or mid 70s, cat 2 becomes possible, that added with the really wide wind field on the north means a ton of surge flooding along the coast.
What is most worrisome hear in Daytona Beach Shores (ground zero for Ian damage on Fla's east coast) is the compromised condition of the beach for what will likely be a very significant coastal erosion event from the gradient wind field north of where Nicole landfalls. We lost 3' depth x 50-75' westward of sand where sea walls collapsed or there were no sea walls.. In the absence of beach re-nourishment (which to my understanding is not an option where sea walls are in place per Army Corp specs), it may take several years of calm hurricane and nor'easter free conditions for significant sand accumulation sea ward of the sea wall. Irma (2017) actually deposited more sand, and dune vegetation had re-established, but Dorian (2019) obliterated the fledgling dune and vegetation.
This back to back onslaught is close to a worse case scenario for Volusia's beaches- the economic driver for the county's tourist-orientated economy. Beach driving- previously a politically charged issue- may ultimately be decided by Mother Nature.
| IsoFlame |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Mon Nov 07 2022 08:49 PM |
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Re: Nicole Forecast Lounge
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low level water vapor loop
mid level water vapor loop
Dry air surrounds Nicole in the lower and mid levels. Unless the atmosphere moistens up by mid-week, this could restrict convective consolidation and inhibit the transition to purely tropical over favorable 80+ SST's, keeping the system from becoming a hurricane prior to landfall.
| kapSt.Cloud |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Mon Nov 07 2022 08:57 PM |
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Re: Nicole Forecast Lounge
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The CMC, ECMWF, GFS, HMON and HDRF models are definitely converging at this point and early on. It appears over Lake Okeechobee or over the northern part of the lake. Any farther south would be more devastation for Southwest Florida. I wasn’t aware your St. James City home was flooded. I thought just minor damage. Being flooded meant a high storm surge as yours is on piers.
| JMII |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Nov 08 2022 03:12 AM |
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Re: Nicole Forecast Lounge
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Quote:
Dry air surrounds Nicole in the lower and mid levels. Unless the atmosphere moistens up by mid-week, this could restrict convective consolidation and inhibit the transition to purely tropical over favorable 80+ SST's, keeping the system from becoming a hurricane prior to landfall.
Agreed, it needs a lot of help to develop a tropical core. Today it moved faster then predicted and is forecast to accelerate a bit more so it might out run the main moisture bubble.
Quote:
I wasn’t aware your St. James City home was flooded. I thought just minor damage. Being flooded meant a high storm surge as yours is on piers.
We think it had maybe 12†of surge… mold took over so we didn’t go inside to verify. It was “minor†but not worth trying to salvage.
| kapSt.Cloud |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Tue Nov 08 2022 03:47 AM |
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Re: Large Low Near Greater Antilles
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“ Best to keep a constant watch on this one. It's too soon after Ian. East Central Florida is still underwater.â€
I agree. It’s down to 998mb and slowing down. One poster mentioned the “Gulf stream†and the “warm Bahamian watersâ€. I’ve learned through the decades going back to Donna (1960) up to including Zeta and Ian we won’t know for sure until it happens. Until it makes landfall. Look at Ian which fooled even the NHC. News crews were in Tampa because it was a sure thing the Tampa area was the target. Another was Ivan in 2004, the year of Charlie, Francis & Jean. Ivan was heading into Tampa then changed course and hit the panhandle taking out the Escambia Bay bridge.
| kapSt.Cloud |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Tue Nov 08 2022 04:04 AM |
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Re: Nicole Forecast Lounge
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One of our local weather forecasters actually said Orlando was possibly going to get a Cat 1. I would be greatly surprised if that occurred.
Now here we are in St. Cloud waiting and wondering if or how much Nicole is going to affect us. There are so many along the St. Johns River who are still flooded, so many without power after 2 weeks. Kissimmee flooded badly. Ian was one of the those storms which affected most of the state.
Too bad about your St. James City home. Black mold is nothing to mess with as it can be deadly.
| OrlandoDan |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Nov 08 2022 06:59 AM |
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Re: Nicole Forecast Lounge
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Nicole is looking a little more organized now with water vapor filling the northern semi-circle.
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Tue Nov 08 2022 11:49 AM |
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Re: Nicole Forecast Lounge
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Nicole is on it's way to becoming tropical. Recon is finding around 992mb now, so it's a bit ahead of schedule on that regard. Consensus shifted north toward Brevard, mostly because of the UKMet which is up toward New Smyrna Beach. Wouldn't be surprised to see hurricane warnings hoisted soon.
6z GFS has landfall as a cat 1 along the Treasure Coast with a quick exit in the gulf just north of Tampa around Spring Hill, then another landfall near St. Marks
0z Euro has a strong TS (991mb, so it's already too weak compared to where Nicole is now) landfalling near the same area, but exiting very briefly in the Gulf from spring hill then back into Cedar Key.
0z Canadian landfalls as a borderline TS/Cat 1 storm near Palm Bay, but never quite gets into the Gulf.
6z Icon makes landfall near Melbourne as a Cat 1 then exits very briefly into the Gulf south of Cedar Key, then landfalls just north of Cedar Key.
6Z hwrf has a cat 2 into Melbourne, and exits quickly into the Gulf south of Cedar key and landfalls again just north of Cedar Key.
6z HMON landfalls near New Smyrna Beach as a borderline cat 1/2 and never gets into the Gulf.
| JMII |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Nov 08 2022 02:18 PM |
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Re: Nicole Forecast Lounge
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Its getting there, currently everything is displaced to the N and E of the center but if it wraps up a Cat 1 seems possible. The TS wind field is massive especially to the N thus I think some people in GA and Carolinas might be surprised at how much "weather" they get from this. Still mostly dry air to the S. As predicted it appears to be leaving the frontal boundary that birthed it behind and transitioning into its tropical phase with a little ball of energy near the L center. With the track shifted N I don't expect much south of WPB unless it hugs the southern edge of the cone.
| IsoFlame |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Tue Nov 08 2022 05:38 PM |
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Re: Nicole Forecast Lounge
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Models trending more north and stronger coming out of the NW Bahamas tommorow- not good news for Volusia's battered coast with some homes and a few condos hanging on the edge with collapsed sea walls and compromised dune systems from Ian in late September. Huge TS wind field north of landfall will expand the impact up into NE Fla and coastal GA through several tide cycles.
The only good news is that Nicole will be moving definitively through east central and NE Fla so rainfall should not be as much of an issue as with Ian.
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CFHC
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| Tue Nov 08 2022 06:48 PM |
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Re: Nicole Forecast Lounge
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Trend south on most of the 12z models UKmet shifts to Vero beach from New Smyrna
12z GFS and CMC shows a strong Cat 1 near Jupiter
12z icon also shifted south to Jupiter.
12z Euro also showing Cat 1 near Jupiter.
12z HWRF shows a cat 3 landfall near Satellite Beach
| OrlandoDan |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Nov 08 2022 07:21 PM |
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Re: Nicole Forecast Lounge
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Low and Mid Level Water Vapor satellite appears to show that Nicole is ingesting some dry air from the south and wrapping up to the Northeast.
Will this affect her strenght and/or track?
| GeorgeN |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Tue Nov 08 2022 08:44 PM |
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Re: Nicole Forecast Lounge
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Quote:
Low and Mid Level Water Vapor satellite appears to show that Nicole is ingesting some dry air from the south and wrapping up to the Northeast.
Will this affect her strenght and/or track?
If it's a lot of dry air, and enough to bring the storm back to subtropical; then the track could shift again. It changed after the storm became officially tropical. Waiting for the next batch of models to see if there is another shift.
| OrlandoDan |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Nov 08 2022 08:49 PM |
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Re: Nicole Forecast Lounge
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Her CoC seems to be exposed on Sandwich RGB. Can she recover when heading into warmer SSTs?
| JMII |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Nov 09 2022 01:15 AM |
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Re: Nicole Forecast Lounge
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Just as she was starting to look pretty good Nicole sucked in a bunch of dry air which caused all the thunderstorm on the E side of the just formed eye to disappear. The only moisture is to the N and the really intense stuff is displaced nearly 180 miles NE of the center. The structure is there but the atmospheric fuel is missing. For the last 2-3 hours she has tracked due W. Despite the current weakness she is actually deeper (by 7mb) then the GFS predicted.
| OrlandoDan |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Nov 09 2022 10:36 AM |
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Re: Nicole Forecast Lounge
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As I questioned in a previous post, it looks like she is experiencing a burst of convection around her CoC. Is this due to high SSTs? Will this be sustained until she landfalls?
| OrlandoDan |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Nov 09 2022 11:20 AM |
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Re: Nicole Forecast Lounge
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Massive burst of convection now.
| JMII |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Nov 09 2022 01:16 PM |
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Re: Nicole Forecast Lounge
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Quote:
Massive burst of convection now.
Appears to have woken up after a night of stumbling and drifting south. Shear is keeping her in check but is slowly over coming the dry area to form a pocket of moisture around the core. Intensity models keep her at minimal Cat 1 status until landfall around Hobe Sound late tonight. Tracking will get easier with the visible satellite today and Nicole is coming into radar range plus Bahamas weather stations. The only strong winds are the NW quad. Overall large TS wind field with a small core, but once again it’s all to the N of center.
| JMII |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Nov 09 2022 03:20 PM |
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Re: Nicole Forecast Lounge
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Based on the latest guidance Nicole is finally to the point where all motion from here on out should be W with more and more N as time moves on. In other words she will never get further S then the current location which is due east of Marsh Harbor in the Bahamas or Boynton Beach on FL coast. Recon finding 60 to 80kt winds NW of the center but nothing much to the S.
| IsoFlame |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Wed Nov 09 2022 06:58 PM |
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Re: Nicole Forecast Lounge
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Quote:
Recon finding 60 to 80kt winds NW of the center but nothing much to the S.
North loaded windfield compliment of the 50 mb gradient between Nicole's 985 mb and 1036 mb high anchored over New England. Almost half of the gradient (22 mb) is concentrated along Florida's east coast from Jupiter north to Fernandina Beach. Catastrophic coastal erosion is underway here in Volusia- millions of dollars of beach infrastructure crumbling into the Atlantic with each high tide.
| JMII |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Nov 09 2022 10:05 PM |
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Re: Nicole Forecast Lounge
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Nicole continues with this pulsing type behavior where she looks good for a few hours then becomes more ragged. Motion by radar is still due west. About an hour ago (4PM) there was a large burst of energy to the E but that immediately got pushed S (due shear?) and never wrapped up. There is some strong bands to the NE... so she continues to try but is just sputtering along.
Landfall has shifted back N to the Ft Pierce area but not sure I am buying that yet, the mid-Atlantic ridge to the N seems to be staying put which will limit any N motion. There is flow coming up from Cuba which is stopping outflow on the southern side. It appears the Nicole is riding between these two features and thus only going west.
The TS wind field is over estimated especially to the S and W. Per the NHC's maps Tampa should be seeing TS winds already which clearly is not happening, heck its still not blowing that hard here on the east coast.
From the NHC:
A NOAA Coastal Marine Observing Site at Settlement Point on the west end of Grand Bahama Island has recently reported sustained winds of 40 mph (64 km/h) and a wind gust of 54 mph (87 km/h). A private weather station on Elbow Cay, just east of Great Abaco Island, recently reported sustained winds of 46 mph (74 km/h) and a wind gust of 64 mph (103 km/h).
So not very powerful and ways to go before Cat 1 status with only 8-9 hours until landfall.
Due to the time change the next update is 6PM not 5PM... I had totally forgotten about that
| Kraig |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Wed Nov 09 2022 11:15 PM |
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Re: Nicole Forecast Lounge
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They bumped it to Cat 1 Hurricane at 6pm, but I will be really surprised if there is more than 2 verified 75mph sustained wind measurements when it comes ashore in Florida. It looks so ragged in the satellite imagery, I feel like all the staff at the NHC gave it the last lift necessary to get to cat 1 status but we'll see in the analysis. Also in the 6pm, the direction changed from 270 to 275 degrees but that is pretty minor but a change none the less. I also have doubts it'll make Ft Pierce, and suspect it will make Sewall's Point/St Lucie Inlet area just like Frances and Jeanne did.
Just a reminder that the SFWMD Radar page has the official NHC forecast line overlaid so it will become very easy to see if Nicole is on track or to the left or right.
| GeorgeN |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Thu Nov 10 2022 12:23 AM |
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Re: Nicole Forecast Lounge
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The 7pm shows a 600 mile, fully circular, hurricane force ,wind extent.
At this point, I'm going to stop believing there is intelligent life at the NHC.
If this was true, everyone from Atlanta to Cuba should be experiencing hurricane winds.
| JMII |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Nov 10 2022 12:30 AM |
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Re: Nicole Forecast Lounge
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Quote:
They bumped it to Cat 1 Hurricane at 6pm, but I will be really surprised if there is more than 2 verified 75mph sustained wind measurements when it comes ashore in Florida. It looks so ragged in the satellite imagery
Agreed, unless it suddenly strengthens significantly this is no hurricane.
Of course as soon as I think there is no way for it to move N, not only does it do just that it actually appears to be N of projected. However in my own defense the eye opened up so much it didn’t “move†it just reformed in a different place.
Whoever made this graphic should be fired: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml/002404.shtml?cone#contents
| JMII |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Nov 10 2022 12:41 AM |
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Re: Nicole Forecast Lounge
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Quote:
The 7pm shows a 600 mile, fully circular, hurricane force ,wind extent.
At this point, I'm going to stop believing there is intelligent life at the NHC.
If this was true, everyone from Atlanta to Cuba should be experiencing hurricane winds.
They just realized the mistake and fixed it. But it was LOL for awhile there. I grabbed a screenshot on my phone.
| kapSt.Cloud |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Thu Nov 10 2022 04:31 AM |
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Re: Nicole Forecast Lounge
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I’m watching local Channel 9 (wftv.com) from Orlando. The eye will be going over us in St. Cloud and Kissimmee. Nicole is forecasted to be a Cat 1 from the east coast to the Gulf. But, as with Zeta in 2020 Nicole may surprise everyone. We never know until all is done. I’m beginning to take the professional weather forecasters with a grain of salt. You folks on here have many times been right on target!
Central Florida continues to be flooded from Ian, especially around the St. Johns River. All evening they’ve been showing houses in Wilber-By-The-Sea teetering on collapsing due to the foundations being washed away by beach erosion. Ian heavily damaged the east coast even though it was classified a SW Florida storm.
| Rhino7170 |
| (Registered User) |
| Thu Nov 10 2022 04:55 AM |
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Re: Nicole Forecast Lounge
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Quote:
I’m watching local Channel 9 (wftv.com) from Orlando. The eye will be going over us in St. Cloud and Kissimmee. Nicole is forecasted to be a Cat 1 from the east coast to the Gulf. But, as with Zeta in 2020 Nicole may surprise everyone. We never know until all is done. I’m beginning to take the professional weather forecasters with a grain of salt. You folks on here have many times been right on target!
Central Florida continues to be flooded from Ian, especially around the St. Johns River. All evening they’ve been showing houses in Wilber-By-The-Sea teetering on collapsing due to the foundations being washed away by beach erosion. Ian heavily damaged the east coast even though it was classified a SW Florida storm.
The cone is over more than Kissimmee, so hard to say the storm is going right over there. Don't watch just the line. The storm is predicted to loose strength one landfall occurs.... no need to predict gloom and doom, as this storm has no time to ramp up to what you keep referring to. Just relax a bit, it will be a bit of weather, but nothing devestating for you nor I.
| kapSt.Cloud |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Thu Nov 10 2022 06:52 AM |
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Re: Nicole Forecast Lounge
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I’m well aware the “cone†is over more than Kissimmee. I’ve been experiencing these storms since 1960 (Donna) so no need to talk down to me. Who’s “predicting gloom and doom� Not I. You need to project your so-called knowledge to the local weather forecasters who are stating the storm will be a Cat 1 from the east coast of Florida to the Gulf. They are definitive the eye will be somewhat south of Kissimmee. No biggy unless it reaches a high Cat 1. Most do lose strength after landfall, but most also ramp up right before landfall. More than likely not this one due to it moving too fast, the location and the time of year.
Did you “relax a bit†and be complacent over the “bit of weather†by a storm named Ian or Zeta? You can get off your high horse now.
The only thing which concerns me is losing power. I’ve been through enough of them to know that’s a possibility.
| JMII |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Nov 10 2022 01:45 PM |
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Re: Nicole Forecast Lounge
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This was no hurricane, the NOAA data doesn't support it. From the NHC official updates:
7PM - Freeport, Grand Bahama = gust to 61 mph
10PM - Juno Beach Pier = gust of 55 mph, Settlement Point, Grand Bahama = gust of 55 mph
1AM - buoy 25 miles east of Cape Canaveral = gust to 67 mph
Other confirmed NWS reports, click the 71 mph wind link on this page for the official Twitter feed:
https://www.axios.com/2022/11/10/hurricane-nicole-florida
Peak gusts (NOT sustained)
73 mph at Playalinda Beach
70 mph at Melbourne
70 mph at Indialantic
67 mph at Patrick Air Force Base
60 mph at New Smyrna Beach
66 mph at Sebastian Inlet and
58 mph at Vero Beach.
These all occurred during the "hurricane" and none of them met the criteria. #science
I have no idea why the NHC continues to have this disconnect from estimated winds aloft and true ground speed winds, you know the kind the public actually feels the effects of. Despite whatever damage might have occurred nobody in FL or the Bahamas experienced a Cat 1 with Nicole, because in reality it was a strong TS.
| kapSt.Cloud |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Thu Nov 10 2022 04:40 PM |
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Re: Nicole Forecast Lounge
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You are correct! Why does the NHC and the local weather continue with such statements? At 12:30 this morning the local weather reporters were calling it “Hurricane Nicoleâ€! Then the, cough, cough, meteorologists were all a gush tracking Nicole as a Cat 1 while crossing the state! The NHC tracking map showed “H†before landfall. St. Cloud was to get hurricane force winds. At least 75 mph winds. The eye was being tracked over us. Good Grief!
Odd thing though, while continuing to check outside I was wondering where are the winds? We’re about 50 miles from either coast. No driving rain. No squalls. No nothing which resembled even a lowly tropical storm!
This is exactly why people don’t pay heed to the warnings to evacuate. As a result when the big ones hit such as Ian…people die!
| GeorgeN |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Thu Nov 10 2022 05:30 PM |
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Re: Nicole Forecast Lounge
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Quote:
This was no hurricane, the NOAA data doesn't support it.
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IMHO the storm info has been grossly mismanaged. From the absurd 7pm chart, to the overinflated wind estimates; I'm really disappointed with the "professionals". Last night, the major plots were all stating the storm was in 3 different locations. Today, the wind estimates are still way above the real wind speeds. I'm not sure if this is because if the storms subtropical nature or something else. The trajectory and rainfall estimates have been accurate, but windspeed should not have been this overestimated.
Is it too late in the season for the hurricane hunters to be flying? Seems like the models are not aligning like they usually do after landfall.
| JMII |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Nov 10 2022 07:01 PM |
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The trajectory and rainfall estimates have been accurate, but windspeed should not have been this overestimated.
Is it too late in the season for the hurricane hunters to be flying?
The hunters were flying in the storm like normal: http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/recon....;product=vortex - Only once did they find surface winds above 74 and even that was an estimate. Make sense over water where you do not have instrumentation but once over land they knew it wasn't blowing that hard. Here is the Vero Beach Airport data: https://w1.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KVRB.html the highest gust I see was 58 and this location was pretty much dead center right after landfall. You can see when the eye passed over as the wind dropped to just 5 after blowing from N then switching to the S. Granted there were likely higher gust as they are only showing hourly data.
The wind speed problem has been going on for DECADES, I've complained about here before: https://flhurricane.com/cyclone/showflat...true#Post72872.
I am 90% sure Ian was rated a good +30 MPH above what was really going on, I look forward to the offseason reports because those contain verified ground data. I have no idea why the NHC continues to give what are clearly flight level winds. I get it - the storm is blowing and they measure those winds with an aircraft, but people live at sea level so the information should reflect that reality. Not only is the speed wrong but the wind field itself was way overstated. Ignoring the 7PM map mistake (which was hilarious) they still show Tampa getting TS winds right now. But local conditions (NOAA data from the airport) currently shows winds 24 gusting to 37... which, again by definition, is not at TS levels. I just don't understand the disconnect.
| GeorgeN |
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| Thu Nov 10 2022 07:40 PM |
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The wind speed problem has been going on for DECADES, I've complained about here before: https://flhurricane.com/cyclone/showflat...true#Post72872.
I am 90% sure Ian was rated a good +30 MPH above what was really going on, I look forward to the offseason reports because those contain verified ground data. I have no idea why the NHC continues to give what are clearly flight level winds. I get it - the storm is blowing and they measure those winds with an aircraft, but people live at sea level so the information should reflect that reality. Not only is the speed wrong but the wind field itself was way overstated. Ignoring the 7PM map mistake (which was hilarious) they still show Tampa getting TS winds right now. But local conditions (NOAA data from the airport) currently shows winds 24 gusting to 37... which, again by definition, is not at TS levels. I just don't understand the disconnect.
Do you think this may be due to an overreliance on models like the GFS (which is known for not being accurate over land).
While the new Euro models do look at topology, it is known that the GFS and older models work best on open water or flat land.
Granted, most of Florida is flat, but even a few tall trees make a difference in cutting windspeed. It seems the windspeed projections are only good until the storm makes landfall, and even then the estimates are accurate for only a few miles inland.
I did see some 80-100mph gusts recorded by NASA at the Cape, so I believe those are accurate. But those were from tall towers that are right on the coast. That isn't a real world analogy to a standard house.
| kapSt.Cloud |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Thu Nov 10 2022 08:16 PM |
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“ I am 90% sure Ian was rated a good +30 MPH above what was really going on, I look forward to the offseason reports because those contain verified ground data.â€
You are correct again. But, why was Andrew upgraded from a Cat 4 to a Cat 5. IMO, it didn’t make much difference in the destruction.
Our local news is showing in Wilbur-By-The-Sea homes and large condos collapsing into the sea. The water is washing out the foundations, some including swimming pools. It’s almost surreal seeing the homes with plywood on the windows for protection against the storm’s winds…just to watch them disappear due to water. Why do they permit structures to be built so close to water? These include tall condos. Law enforcement is going from door to door telling people to evacuate. As usual some are staying. Look for them to wave goodbye as their homes collapse into the sea taking them with their homes!
We in Osceola County are currently under a tropical storm warming. Oh, well…
Local news continues to refer to the storm as Hurricane Nicole.
| JMII |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Nov 10 2022 09:30 PM |
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Do you think this may be due to an overreliance on models like the GFS (which is known for not being accurate over land).
I did see some 80-100mph gusts recorded by NASA at the Cape, so I believe those are accurate. But those were from tall towers that are right on the coast. That isn't a real world analogy to a standard house.
The model data is used predictions - IE: the storm will reach this location on this day and at this intensity in the future, but once a storm can be observed directly, in real time, either by aircraft or ground stations you no longer need predictive modeling for wind speed. Same goes for the wind field, they know what the winds are, we literally have hundreds of weather stations on the land and sea these days, so I strongly feel they should adjust the storm graphics to reflect that data. Future intensity forecasting has always been challenging while track forecasting has gotten way more accurate in comparison: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/verification/verify5.shtml
...and correct on the winds recorded at the Cape.
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But, why was Andrew upgraded from a Cat 4 to a Cat 5.
I actually believe Andrew is what started this betting-the-over trend in wind speed reporting. Better to say its going to be worse then get caught with your pants down using a weaker forecast, basically its a CYA move. Andrew was a 5 but the NHC didn't know enough about such monsters because they were so rare, so call it a 4. Then as Andrew made landfall the instrumentation failed... wind levels were literally off the charts. Years later with better tools and reviewing the data they changed its official status. Part of the driving force behind the revisit was trying to put the damage into historical perspective and get the building codes adjusted to handle possible future storms. Many people cried foul at the Cat 4 rating due the intense damage, they even brought in tornado specialists to explain what they were seeing because the hurricane scientists had no frame of reference for the devastation.
Sources:
https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/hurdat/andrew.html
https://research.noaa.gov/article/ArtMID...urricane-Andrew
| kapSt.Cloud |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Thu Nov 10 2022 10:47 PM |
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Do you believe it would have been reclassified a Cat 5 from a Cat 4 if the homes hadn’t been so shabbily built? This led to catastrophic destruction. The destruction in Mississippi from Katrina was just as bad if not worse. It occurred from storm surge with lower wind speed. The instruments during Camille 1969 broke after recording 175 mph sustained winds.
“Many people cried foul at the Cat 4 rating due the intense damage, they even brought in tornado specialists to explain what they were seeing because the hurricane scientists had no frame of reference for the devastation.â€
All they had to do was look at photos from the:
Labor Day Hurricane of 1935: 185-mph in Florida
Hurricane Camille (1969): 175-mph in Mississippi
Galveston, Texas (1900) 140-mph estimation, but where upwards to 12,000 people perished
| JMII |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Nov 11 2022 06:54 PM |
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Yes the construction was very much to blame. After Andrew we went into our attic (house built in the 80s in central Broward) and sure enough 60-70% of the hurricane straps were attached to nothing, zip, nada. You could see where the roof nails missed the trusses. So our roof was held down by only its own weight, if the wind had blown over about a Cat 3 I bet it would have failed too. My current house was built in 93, right after Andrew when they actually enforced the codes, we took the eyewall of Wilma (Cat 3 landfall, Cat 2 over land) and lost a fewn roof cap tiles but that was it. Just look at the fancy homes built on pilings (so no surge) that survived Ian... we can build hurricane resistant structures but they are expensive. Water is 100X worse then wind in terms of damage which should surprise nobody given how much water weighs.
My theory is after the Andrew reclassification I believe the NHC started adding 15% to all wind calculations to ensure they never have to admit they under-estimated things. Do I need to adjust my tinfoil hat? Maybe but the data always comes in with winds below what the NHC reports during landfall.