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GFS always sees a May or June storm in the western caribbean every year with feedback erros and no other true model support after 84hrs... every year! Usually 95% of these develop in the far eastern Pacific if they do. Usual Atlantic systems develop off Florida or the caronlina near Bermuda as a subtropical system in May or early June. GFS again has no model support except again maybe something trying to develop near Mexico but on the pacific side. So until we get the Euro on board or at least the CMC in the western carribean within 3 days.. then I wouldn't take much grain of salt in the GFS after 84hrs |