It does look as if Agatha gave up the ghost and yielded almost entirely to the trof that was hugging the coastlines of Belize and eastern Yucatan the past few days, now the location of 91L. What is left of Agatha has mostly been swallowed up by it, save a weak bit of swirl still over the southern Bay of Campeche.

As noted, 91L continues to organize east of its forecast position, and continues to track further to the right, with a stout mid-level center tugging at the surface trof that was off the coast of Belize, aligning it, and Tropical Cyclogenesis may already be underway.

Models that anticipated genesis about the tip of the Yucatan have possibly made a bad call. Recon's data tomorrow will be helpful, although PTC or TC advisories could already be issued by the time they arrive.

This probable initiation that is east-southeast of where anticipated will likely have some influence on future forecast track and intensity, and interests in the northwest Caribbean to Cuba to the Bahamas may also want to pay close attention tonight.