Compared to where I was May 31st to where I am today, June 24, I'm leaning in to calling for a season that has echos of some of our extremely active seasons, with both 2020 and 2005 as somewhat analogous. A couple of the reasons for this include unusually favorable conditions even early on in the MDR (Main Development Region) of the Tropical Atlantic, as well as the potential for very favorable conditions for both development and Rapid Intensification in portions of the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico. In addition, there is reason to believe that conditions for development in the sub-tropical Atlantic could be above to even much above average.

If I was pressed to give an update to my pre-season, constrained guess of 16-22 Depressions, 14-19 Storms, 6-9 Hurricanes and 3-5 Majors, I would now be at 20-24 Depressions, 18-22 Storms, 9-13 Hurricanes and 4-7 Majors, with a risk of even this being on the low end. The reason for the dramatic increase has to do with all the confirmation I have seen that the constraints I apply early on probably should not be applied this year, and without those constraints, the numbers come in to much more alignment with our most hyperactive years.

What say you?