As of 3AM AST June 27, Invest 94L is looking increasingly well put together at the surface, with some indications that convection is beginning to organize with the help of overnight DMAX. It will be informative to see how much of this remains during the day, as the same has happened prior only to give up the ghost throughout the day.

At first blush, track looks straight forward - southerly - into the southern Caribbean if not even brushing northernmost South America, then plop into the southwesternmost Caribbean, and then off to somewhere between Central America and perhaps the southernmost Yucatan. There are some minority reports from the models, however, and they are far from few. A number of ensembles from the Globals suggest a track heading more towards Belize/Yucatan, and crossing into the southwestern GOM, is not off the table.

Intensity, while notoriously difficult to forecast, is still bullish, with many models and ensembles ramping 94L into a rare June and/or early July hurricane somewhere between the eastern Caribbean and Central America. There are even a few plausible ensembles that track into the western Gulf as a Major. Definitely all lounge talk this far out, and probably nothing to make any sort of planning around until more is known.