Here say me...

Though July climo historically last relatively quite month before August ramps up, I'm not sure if Saharan dust and lack of moisture this month in the east/central Atlantic is the culprit for how quite the last 3-4 weeks (and potintially the next 2 weeks) have been. It appears to me that a dominant and stubborn Azores high is decapitating convection emerging off the African coast and depressing SST's in the seeding ground for tropical waves in the east-central Atlantic. I keep looking for this pattern to change in the medium range forecast models, but see no indication into the second week in August.

That said, the central and western Caribbean, as well as the entire GOMEX, should be open for business should a wave survive a week's trek in the MDR. I'm still backing the conservative call made in May, with a gut feeling the heart of the season (3rd week of August into early October) could be crazy busy... .