Morning Models

The 6z GFS gets over the Yucatan Peninsula and back over the open Gulf where it moves somewhat slowly and landfalls south of Lake Charles Sunday afternoon on October 2nd. The GFS Seems to be alone that far west. The 0z Canadian GEM (CMC) model takes it over Naples, FL this Coming Tuesday as a category 2 hurricane. The 0z Euro landfalls north of Tampa near Cedar key Thursday morning as a cat 3/4 hurricane. The UKMET and TVCN consensus (NHC is usually close to it) have it in the East Gulf generally toward the Florida panhandle.

Without a definite center to track and it being so close to south America, there's still a great deal of uncertainty right now, but GFS seems to be the outlier at the moment.