NINE (Now Ian) has begun to avail itself of the much more favorable environment for development and potential Rapid Intensification, and the favorable conditions only look to improve from here, possibly off and on - or even mostly on - all the way to Florida, save land interaction.

This is not the scenario anyone wanted to see unfolding, but this is what looks to be the case with probably better than 90% certainty.

Here are my personal lifetime max intensity odds for Ian.

Low-Mid Tropical Storm < 1%
High-End Tropical Storm 2%
Cat 1 Hurricane 3%
Cat 2 Hurricane 15%
Cat 3 Hurricane 30%
Cat 4 Hurricane 35%
Cat 5 Hurricane 15%

Once the synoptic and meso scale features start to come into better focus, I might place an early best guess on landfall(s) intensity, but suffice it to say, this season will probably be the last time we ever see the name Ian used again.