5AM cone suggests possible Cat 2/3 very near the gut of Tampa Bay. Last major to hit was 1921 Tampa Bay/Tarpon Springs Hurricane
My uncle built his house in St. Pete on "high ground" (7' above Bay level) on Snell Island in the 1960's and lived there until his death in the late 2000's. Several tropical storms and a weak hurricane or two over the 40 year period submerged his dock, sea wall and yard, flooded many nearby homes and made roads impassible. But sea water never into the house.

If center of Ian tracks just to the left of the Bay entrance, striking or glancing off Pinellas peninsula, the storm surge could be historic.