"Above-average uncertainty in the forecast track." So the Euro (and ensembles) have been consistent with SW (or more recently West Central) FL, with the (new and tweaked for the 2022 hurricane season!?) GFS/ensembles staying offshore and eventually targeting Apalachee Bay. There is a history of "Steinhatchee Storms", and Ian looks like a prime candidate. This could be a best-case scenario with the center striking a swampy, lightly-populated area that is familiar with high storm surge. It would also likely be weakening due to expected wind shear that Mike mentioned.