| JMII |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sat Sep 24 2022 01:59 PM |
|
Re: Ian Lounge
|
Quote:
morning models, note most initialized too far north based on recon reports.
6z gfs:
Clips western Cuba Tuesday morning as a cat 3.
Landfalls east of Apalachicola as a cat 1/2 (weakens with shear before landfall)
That model run keeps it west enough that direct coastal effects wouldn't be too bad if it stays small. It is also further west then the previous run.
Ian is building, there is a lot of thunderstorms bubbling up and its even developing outflow channels. However recon didn't find much in the way of winds yet. Its a bit of a jumble but all the ingredients are there, its just needs time.