Recon, something we did not have much benefit of the past 48 hours as flights were focusing on Fiona, has spent a great deal of time in Ian today, and the data is significant.

The first thing of note, is that Ian is rather troffy, with possibly still multiple swirls, or "centers," old and new, rotating about a midpoint of the troffy-storm. In addition, it still seems be feeling the push possibly a little bit more southward than largely forecast by the narrow ridge to its north. Finally, the pressure does not yet seem to be falling, and winds are not picking up.

All the above taken together casts further doubt on the reliability of the near unanimous model consensus of a direct Florida west coast landfall. The minority reports, the outliers initially weaker and then further left (west) in the long-range, clearly have some validity.

In fact, there has only been one VDM so far today, from 1042z, predawn and many hours ago, that fixed way down at 13.54N 74.58W, and on its own did not make a compelling case for tropical storm intensity.

0z models out later tonight may respond in meaningful way. Track and intensity remain in play, particularly track, as Ian is still more likely than not to become a Major. But a Florida peninsula landfall, maybe not so locked in. We can certainly hope not, for the probable strength and size of Ian around that time could be devastating for locations such as the Keys and Tampa.