Ian's rag-a-muffin lack of consolidation/strengthening today and ongoing shear widened the cone with two spaghetti plot camps: FL panhandle/Big Bend versus Tampa/Port Charlotte.

Lack of strengthening during daylight hours today due to ongoing shear and less than stellar organization should not let anyone in the cone let their guard down. Westward shift of forecast track = less (if any) significant interaction with western Cuba, and a delayed US landfall (by a day) = more time over seasonal max SST's in the NW Caribbean and eastern GOMEX. with increasingly favorable conditions next 48 hours,

At some point late tomorrow into Monday when rapid intensification is well underway, models should gorge on rich upstream data from extensive atmospheric parameter sampling, reaching much better consensus.

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