The model split continues overnight. GFS, HWRF are in the panhandle west of Panama City Beach (near Seaside) -- 6z moved to Panama City Beach itself . CMC is near Cedar Key. UKMET, Icon, and the Euro are now south of Tampa. (All shifted right some, although the icon shifted the most right).

The Current forecast splits the difference, and add onto that uncertainty about the center of Ian persists as it looks like the more northern area (under the convection) is starting to win out.

"With the cross-track spreading remaining between 200-220 n mi at days 4 and 5, it cannot be overstated that significant uncertainty remains in Ian's long-range prediction. "

This is the story for this morning. The entire cone still needs to take this seriously.

At least the MLC looks to be around 15.5N this morning, so I expect it to consolidate there, the south one seemed like a red herring. LLC may not be there yet, recon has that at 14.9N 79.4W, i expect it'll slide up to match the MLC fairly soon.