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Lounge thoughts is that the Consensus will settle closer to Cedar Key or Steinhatchee, but the Euro (even 6z now is south of Tampa) with a move north. So it looks like it could get uncomfortably close to Tampa, potentially slide along just offshore (with the dirty side over land) and eventually landfall in the Big Bend or at/around Cedar Key. This would be pretty bad for surge if that happened from at least Tampa up, but hoping it stays far enough west to avoid the worst of that. |