Ian is, as predicted, getting its act together. Outflow is good in all quadrants, the core is developing. The big change I see in the NHC forecast is this slower motion (with more surge) and a shear inducted weakening in the end. Several forecasts ago we were looking at a curve across the state and out to sea over the east coast. Now it could just move into GA and die there.

The problem continues to be this follow-the-coast type track which puts a large area along the west coast to the panhandle in the danger zone. If the wind field expands the entire west coast of FL could experience hurricane force winds. In the end the size of the storm may be more of an issue then where exactly it makes landfall. A small but strong storm that stays just offshore then weakens before landfall is the best case situation. The model diversions start after moving N of Key West, so once it cross Cuba hopefully the models get a better grasp on things and we see a narrowing of possibilities. The approach angle means small difference in the track could make big differences in the future, or it may not matter since so much of the coast will be effected. On the flip side the core staying offshore just enough would only generate TS winds onshore.