| JMII |
| (Weather Master) |
| Mon Sep 26 2022 03:22 PM |
|
Re: Ian Lounge
|
Quote:
I can't imagine many scenarios worse than a brief/slow jog to the ENE as the GFS suggested. It would put the Bay and Pinellas on the right front quadrant of a strong, slow moving cat 3 for 6-8 hours (maybe even 10-12) starting late night Wednesday into much of Thursday.
The only good news with the slower motion is that increases the chances Ian has of sucking in dry air and encountering shear as the global models show unfavorable environmental conditions later on this week. However that scenario only plays out if Ian stays offshore moving N then coming in near the Big Bend region. If it turns ENE sooner into Tampa it will be going full tilt but then surge wouldn't have a chance to pile up as much.
As has been the case for the last few days the models are split between the E turn and N stall out - so for now the NHC is showing a middle option guesstimate. The models yesterday were more N but today they have swung back E. I still think the bigger factor is the wind field since a compact storm would keep hurricane force winds offshore until it makes landfall. Currently hurricane force winds only extend out 35 miles from the center.