(Storm Tracker)
Mon Sep 26 2022 08:05 PM
Re: Ian Lounge


Does anyone know why the GFS model has been pulled far off it's Mean value into this new and sudden plot departure? The UKMET has been predicting a more Southern FL landfall all along, but it's concerning to see the GFS pulled from it's previous course like this. Is there something in the UKMET that wasn't factored in, or just bad statistical analysis on the last GFS run? GFS Mean is still showing a panhandle landfall, at least the 1200 UTC shows it. I'm trying to figure out why the GFS has the sudden East, North, West, then East jog. It's like the storm is avoiding a deer in the road. The more I learn, the more I don't understand.

If it's the same problem, I saw other 22:30UTC products that were broken/hadn't plotted.

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