Tue Sep 27 2022 05:09 AM
Re: Ian Lounge

There's a lot of push and pull going on with Ian that still makes US landfall location and by extension landfall intensity very difficult for being just 1-3 days out.

The 0z runs have already made some errors in one place, while gotten things right in another, in some ways cancelling each pro and con out that could result in the same landfall location and intensity had both been correct. Could. Or not. It is easy to see how it could, and could not. This doesn't make the track forecast any less muddy.

Given Ian's near Cat 4 intensity heading into western Cuba, a track to the right sooner rather than later makes sense, considering the deeper trof digging into the eastern US. A hook right sooner rather than later could also protect Ian from the incoming shear over the region, at least in the near to medium term, allowing the cyclone to maintain a stronger intensity than should it track more north-bound, and headlong into the incoming shear.

Locations from roughly Tampa south may want to pay close attention to any subtle changes in Ian's track today, as they could add up in time to a more south-bound ultimate landfall.

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