| IsoFlame |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Mon Nov 07 2022 03:34 PM |
|
Re: Nicole Forecast Lounge
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Quote:
One of the challenging things about this is the pressure gradient with the high around Virginia, which may drive up winds higher than typical for the TS pressure on the north side. Which is what I'm concerned about the most. I.e. pressure may be 990, but you still get cat 1 winds because of the gradient. If it dips to low 80s or mid 70s, cat 2 becomes possible, that added with the really wide wind field on the north means a ton of surge flooding along the coast.
What is most worrisome hear in Daytona Beach Shores (ground zero for Ian damage on Fla's east coast) is the compromised condition of the beach for what will likely be a very significant coastal erosion event from the gradient wind field north of where Nicole landfalls. We lost 3' depth x 50-75' westward of sand where sea walls collapsed or there were no sea walls.. In the absence of beach re-nourishment (which to my understanding is not an option where sea walls are in place per Army Corp specs), it may take several years of calm hurricane and nor'easter free conditions for significant sand accumulation sea ward of the sea wall. Irma (2017) actually deposited more sand, and dune vegetation had re-established, but Dorian (2019) obliterated the fledgling dune and vegetation.
This back to back onslaught is close to a worse case scenario for Volusia's beaches- the economic driver for the county's tourist-orientated economy. Beach driving- previously a politically charged issue- may ultimately be decided by Mother Nature.