| GeorgeN |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Thu Nov 10 2022 02:40 PM |
|
Re: Nicole Forecast Lounge
|
Quote:
The wind speed problem has been going on for DECADES, I've complained about here before: https://flhurricane.com/cyclone/showflat...true#Post72872.
I am 90% sure Ian was rated a good +30 MPH above what was really going on, I look forward to the offseason reports because those contain verified ground data. I have no idea why the NHC continues to give what are clearly flight level winds. I get it - the storm is blowing and they measure those winds with an aircraft, but people live at sea level so the information should reflect that reality. Not only is the speed wrong but the wind field itself was way overstated. Ignoring the 7PM map mistake (which was hilarious) they still show Tampa getting TS winds right now. But local conditions (NOAA data from the airport) currently shows winds 24 gusting to 37... which, again by definition, is not at TS levels. I just don't understand the disconnect.
Do you think this may be due to an overreliance on models like the GFS (which is known for not being accurate over land).
While the new Euro models do look at topology, it is known that the GFS and older models work best on open water or flat land.
Granted, most of Florida is flat, but even a few tall trees make a difference in cutting windspeed. It seems the windspeed projections are only good until the storm makes landfall, and even then the estimates are accurate for only a few miles inland.
I did see some 80-100mph gusts recorded by NASA at the Cape, so I believe those are accurate. But those were from tall towers that are right on the coast. That isn't a real world analogy to a standard house.