12z gfs recurves well before the islands around 55west, 12z Euro gets much closer to the islands when the recurve in earnest happens around 60W as a cat 2 hurricane (However it puts Bermuda in a position to watch it closely). Neither crosses the Caribbean islands.

Euro ensembles has more spread than the GFS, some of the ensembles do cross into the Caribbean. However, with the caveat that the system has not formed yet, the odds favor a recurve before the Caribbean islands at the moment.

12z Canadian CMC/Gem keeps it much weaker and it goes into the Caribbean all the way to Cuba. 12z icon recurves it similar to GFS.

In short this is a setup that is good for the rule of thumb weaker=further west, stronger=more likely to recurve.