MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Mon Jul 17 2023 11:41 AM
Re: General Long Range Model Discussio

Overnight model runs shifted a bit right for the GFS, the latest (6z)takes a path away form the Caribbean and US, while the 0z ended with a much stronger hurricane closer to the US. (Yesterday was the Gulf). The swings will likely continue.

Euro doesn't develop the system, but gets the wave into the Caribbean. It's also moves the system much faster to the west.

Canadian does not develop it.

Still plenty of time to watch, but until the system is off Africa and the models go one way or the other, it's nothing more than something to monitor into later this week. On the ensemble runs, Euro and GFS do show a potential for something toward the Caribbean. But of the operational, only the GFS does.



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