Fri Jul 21 2023 08:33 AM
Re: Atlantic Wave (Invest 95L)

Track models for Euro ensembles take this into the Caribbean.

Now that it's an invest several Intensity models are bringing it to hurricane strength, that combined with the relatively small storm size means the globals may not handle it well. The rule of thumb where a stronger storm moves a bit morth north may apply here. If the small size manages to keep itself inside a "protective pouch" around the dryer air (Which appears to be occuring) things could change as far as future track, so it should be watched particularly those in the Eastern Caribbean.

The globals are mixed the HWRF/HMON shows a strong TS or low end hurricane approaching the islands Tuesday. GFS/CMC/Euro Globals take it into the Caribbean where it falls apart, but don't seem to be picking up much on the small size. I'd be cautious using models with this system until something actually develops.

Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources. 
CFHC's main servers are currently located at Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well. Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center