Increasingly, models are warming up to the idea of a tropical cyclone forming somewhere off Central America either in or moving into the Atlantic side later this week.

ECMWF ensemble implied formation probability is up around 65%. On the other hand, the operational runs of the ECMWF have been inconsistent, tending to keep this Low on the weak side and linger it around the Yucatan without much development, and the operational GFS washes it out over central Amerca by the weekend.

Overall, conditions remain favorable for tropical cyclone development in the Atlantic basin. Given this background state, model support and forecast locaton we are now starting a Lounge at this time on what is not yet Invest-tagged, but could be in a few days. Should this feature be assigned an Invest number the title will be updated.

There is a high chance that this well-forecast area of low pressure brings inclement weather to locations in and around the Western Caribbean to southern Gulf of Mexico, and based on modeling, a modest chance that it influences or impacts Florida by next week.

The area of interest in the northwest Caribbean has been assigned an Invest tag today, 93L, and the title has been updated accordingly.
TEN 8/26/23 5PM EDT - Ciel