23/12z Operational ECMWF has joined with so many of its ensemble members and develops. By the end of the day Friday, this model run shows a well-defined closed low established off the north coast of Honduras, tracks north to the northern portions of the Yucatan overnight Saturday as an apparent T.D. and very slowly drifts off the tip into the gap between Yucatan and western Cuba by Monday as a strengthening tropical storm, picking up speed later in the day Monday towards the north-northeast. Landfall Wednesday morning as a Cat 2+ hurricane near Bonita Beach, Fl.