A small area of low pressure has formed in association with a quasi Central American Gyre. This compact area of low pressure is just off the northeastern tip of Honduras this evening, and is the most likely candidate swirl for initiation in the NHC 70% probability cone, although it may jump north to north-northwest in the shorter-term. Longer-term and overall, a motion to the north-northeast to northeast is largely anticipated by models as the low organzies and begins to round the base of a small upper-level low to its northeast (model differences remain on placements and interactions).