#93L (Idalia-to-be if you will) is drifting about over deeply very warm waters in a steering current collapse left in Franklin's wake, and it may not be until about late Monday or Tuesday before a High in between the two becomes established enough to get 93L moving towards the coast in a meaningful way.

Idalia-to-be has an unpleasantly large window to intensify over exceptionally warm SSTs and in an environment of lower to low shear. The potential for this cyclone to Major is arguably well above average.

Here is my initial best guess lifetime Maximum Sustained Winds for Invest 93L (Future Idalia)

<35 KTS 1%
35-45 KTS 4%
50 KTS - 60 KTS 10%
Cat 1 15%
Cat 2 18%
Cat 3 22%
Cat 4 22%
Cat 5 8%

A little less confidence as usual for when I attempt to roll these out, entirely because as of now we have had no recon, and very sparse scatterometer data.

Looked at another way, I assign an 85% chance that 93L becomes a hurricane at some point - and a better than 50% chance that 93L Majors.

Interests from northern Yucatan to western Cuba to South Florida to Alabama could be at risk, as the future steering pattern is far from well understood. Having recon is ASAP will be a great benefit.