cieldumort
(Moderator)
Sun Aug 27 2023 06:11 PM
Re: 93L Lounge

There looks to be a few reasons why rightward adjustments to the forecast track may be coming.


In general, there has been more of a blowup of convection downshear from the center and this is likely to continue off and on. What has occurred most recently isn't as much as a center jump per se, than more likely a cyclonic loop responding to the changing steering currents. But going forward, given the lopsided convection at present and forecasts of some on again off again modest northwesterly shear, one could expect a better chance of either center reformations or just simply adjustments downshear (to the east). All that said, a better chance is not saying such an outcome is certain. In addition, that northerly/northwesterly shear may be less than expected.

At this point, I'm all but ignoring 12z model runs myself (at least as far as Idalia is concerned). I want to see both the 18z and 0z runs before biting on anything.



Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources. 
CFHC's main servers are currently located at Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well. Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center