Here are my updated best guesses as to Idalia's peak lifetime maximum wind speed. I should add that this is also most likely to occur prior to crossing Florida, and possibly right into landfall.

<35 KTS 0% (Has exceeded)
35-45 KTS 0% (Has exceeded)
50 KTS - 60 KTS 2% (Current wind speeds estimated by NHC)
Cat 1 4%
Cat 2 17%
Cat 3 24%
Cat 4 31%
Cat 5 22%

Or looked at another way, I now give a 94% chance that Idalia becomes a hurricane, a 77% chance that Idalia becomes a Major, a 53% chance that Idalia becomes a high-end Major, and a 22% chance that Idalia becomes a Category 5.

There are still several things that could go wrong for Idalia and prevent it from becoming a Major hurricane, but there are also more things that seem to be setting up "right" (for higher-end hurricane).