cieldumort
(Moderator)
Mon Aug 28 2023 03:26 AM
Re: Idalia Lounge

28/0z model runs ingested quite a bit of Hurricane Hunter data and as such are of greater interest

Vortex-scale hurricane models

0z HWRF - Initialized a touch too far northwest, but not horribly. Majors overnight Tuesday, becoming Cat 4 heading into landfall (in fact, 850hPa wind suggests a potential for gusts exceeding 150 KTS predawn Wednesday). Landfall as a Cat 3+ in vicinity of Redfish Point, Apalachee Bay Wednesday morning.

0z HMON - Also initialized a touch too far northeast, but not horribly. Majors Tuesday morning. High-end Cat 2 heading towards landfall overnight Tuesday. Landfalls in vicinity between Steinhatchee and Fish Creek early Wednesday morning probably about Cat 2.

0z HAFS-A Solid inititial location. Majors heading into landfall predawn Wednesday, with an apparent landfall location somewhere between Horseshoe Beach and Steinhatchee as a Major early Wednesday morning.

0z HAFS-B Solid initial location. Majors Tuesday evening. Cat 4s Tuesday overnight. Landfalls roughly southeast of St Marks in the Apalachee Bay Wednesday morning, seemingly Cat 2/3.