| JMII |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Aug 29 2023 01:53 PM |
|
Re: Idalia Lounge
|
Quote:
Track has been more or less due north overall. I suspect that looking at its movement as smoothed over three to six hours, as NHC does, is still going to be most informative in the longer-term. Temporary wobbles and jogs as Idalia is approaching the coast would have some greater immediate significance to those in her path of course.
This +1
I use the map at https://www.wunderground.com/wundermap with the hurricane and radar layer active. She was E of track this AM but has wobbled back W. As mentioned wobbles this far out don't mean much unless a clear trend emerges. Based on past storms the NHC can be slow in making long term adjustments as to not over-react. Irma was a good example of this, she kept missing her forecast positions thus the final landfall (5 days later) switched from the E coast to the W coast of FL (100 mile error). Technically she stayed inside the 3 day cone but everyone gets hyper focused on that center line then acts surprised when landfall is somewhere else.