cieldumort
(Moderator)
Mon Sep 04 2023 06:38 PM
Re: Cape Verde-origin Major Hurricane second week in September?

This well-forecast system (Invest 95L officially now) has many days for us to keep an eye on and sure counts as a lower (but not very low) probability - higher (and maybe very high) impact risk.

Most models favor vigorous intensification in the Tropical Atlantic while 95L is still well east of the Antilles. Such would favor a more poleward, and hopefully fish-ward, recurveature. However, there's a fair chance 95L stays on the relatively weaker side, which would tend to favor a more southerly track earlier on and that could put islands and eventually the CONUS at greater risk of impact. There are even a few solutions that hint of a robust, expansive Bermuda High regardless of 95L's intensity a week from now.

I think that being the time frame for potential US land impacts is still in the 7-14 days out range, it really questions the limits the models' abilities to be anything more than noise. But, by the end of the coming week we should be able to put a lot more stock in them, especially once recon starts going in.



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