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Quote: I thought most models handled Idalia's track and intensity amazingly well a week in advance before the system organized and recon was available. Once extensive recon data started flowing in this added to the confidence and facilitated warnings well in advance along Florida's Gulf coast, saving many lives given the record storm surge in the Big Bend and areas north of St.Pete. A weaker system in the central Atlantic on a W/WNW track into the islands, re-emerging/intensifying over the western Atlantic in very favorable atmospheric and oceanic conditions as the Bermuda high strengthens to 1030+ mb (strongest of the season) north of the TC while ridging westward could be a Andrew-like scenario for somewhere along the southeast US coast. I'm hoping for a weakness in the ridge to allow re-curvature 300 (or more) miles offshore- no impact to Florida (other than good surf). I also hope another high doesn't set up over the northeast and friends on the Outer Banks also enjoy good surf while avoiding direct impacts. |