| IsoFlame |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Mon Sep 04 2023 04:41 PM |
|
Re: Cape Verde-origin Major Hurricane second week in September?
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Quote:
However, there's a fair chance 95L stays on the relatively weaker side, which would tend to favor a more southerly track earlier on and that could put islands and eventually the CONUS at greater risk of impact. There are even a few solutions that hint of a robust, expansive Bermuda High regardless of 95L's intensity a week from now.
I think that being the time frame for potential US land impacts is still in the 7-14 days out range, it really questions the limits the models' abilities to be anything more than noise. But, by the end of the coming week we should be able to put a lot more stock in them, especially once recon starts going in.
I thought most models handled Idalia's track and intensity amazingly well a week in advance before the system organized and recon was available. Once extensive recon data started flowing in this added to the confidence and facilitated warnings well in advance along Florida's Gulf coast, saving many lives given the record storm surge in the Big Bend and areas north of St.Pete.
A weaker system in the central Atlantic on a W/WNW track into the islands, re-emerging/intensifying over the western Atlantic in very favorable atmospheric and oceanic conditions as the Bermuda high strengthens to 1030+ mb (strongest of the season) north of the TC while ridging westward could be a Andrew-like scenario for somewhere along the southeast US coast.
I'm hoping for a weakness in the ridge to allow re-curvature 300 (or more) miles offshore- no impact to Florida (other than good surf). I also hope another high doesn't set up over the northeast and friends on the Outer Banks also enjoy good surf while avoiding direct impacts.