| cieldumort |
| (Moderator) |
| Mon Sep 04 2023 10:01 PM |
|
Re: Cape Verde-origin Major Hurricane second week in September?
|
Quote:
I thought most models handled Idalia's track and intensity amazingly well a week in advance before the system organized and recon was available
Depends on the model \_(ツ)_/¯
One week prior to Idalia's landfall was a mixed bag as to whether or not there would even be an Invest-able disturbance in the Caribbean/Gulf region on Wednesday August 30, let alone landfall location of a hurricane. ECMWF did exceptionally well, but others increasingly did not. Idalia wasn't even on the GFS radar then, and an Invest tagged system had even yet to be assigned to the dynamic track and intensity models HWRF, HMON and HAFS.
Model ability to accurately predict the synoptic scale steering flow especially after 10 days but even within the 7-10 day window is pretty limited. No doubt that 95L will be named and most likely become a Major, but GFS calling for a major very near the Florida east coast two weeks out is a possible outcome, but of dubious reliability.
95L has some scary dangerous potential if it heads to land. Certainly one to watch closely.