The only outlier is the Navy Nogaps model on the weaker side, also with more robust Blocking, due west at 20n and land interaction, Hati and cuba to help knock it down a little.
Yesterday, 18z into Cuba, 0z into Cuba, 06z stall out in the Bahamas then moving north, 12z this morning cuba then Gulf of mexico..
The Nogaps was also the outlier with Idalia showing a weaker system and further east, and it was wrong that time.
Going to have to go with the main Models stronger and out to sea for now..Although I can see where a stronger ridge, faliure to ramp up, and land interaction can cause a more Gulfward scenario, alot of the systems that have come out of the MDR have lagged behind the main models in thier timeline to ultimate strength, so why would this be different, could also be the nhc holding back on the actual strength and structure of some of the systems they seem to be self verifying thier own forcast these days, especcialy non concern systems...Will be interesting to watch over the next 72 hours, could hold those awnsers.