cieldumort
(Moderator)
Tue Sep 05 2023 09:35 PM
Re: Lee Lounge

For funzies, here is my initial lifetime maximum sustained wind intensity best guess for Lee.

40 KTS (current advisory) 0%
45-50 KTS 0%
60 KTS 0%
65 KTS 2%
70-80 KTS 3%
85-95 KTS 3%
100-110 KTS 8%
115-125 KTS 12%
130-135 KTS 22%
140-150 KTS 28%
155-170 KTS 17%
>170 KTS 5%

Or looked at another way, I give a statistical -0- percent chance that Lee does not become a hurricane of any category, a 92% chance that Lee Majors, and for the Six Million Dollar question, how high up the scale does this go: 72% odds that Lee becomes a Cat 4 or 5, and a 50% chance that Lee becomes a Cat 5.



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