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For funzies, here is my initial lifetime maximum sustained wind intensity best guess for Lee. 40 KTS (current advisory) 0% 45-50 KTS 0% 60 KTS 0% 65 KTS 2% 70-80 KTS 3% 85-95 KTS 3% 100-110 KTS 8% 115-125 KTS 12% 130-135 KTS 22% 140-150 KTS 28% 155-170 KTS 17% >170 KTS 5% Or looked at another way, I give a statistical -0- percent chance that Lee does not become a hurricane of any category, a 92% chance that Lee Majors, and for the Six Million Dollar question, how high up the scale does this go: 72% odds that Lee becomes a Cat 4 or 5, and a 50% chance that Lee becomes a Cat 5. |