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Models overnight keep Lee away from land areas, close enough for very rough surf, but no direct impacts in the Caribbean islands. Bermuda, Canadian Maratimes, Outer Banks, and the Northeast US may have to watch out in the longer run based on the trends, but most likely it'll will stay east of land. That track east would still bring rip currents and very rough surf to much of the east coast. Lee is worth monitoring for changes because of how strong it may become, however, but right now things are looking pretty good for minimal direct impacts to land. Most models overnight shifted to the right, east, including the UKMet. 0z Euro keeps it interesting with a potential threat to the Northeast as a ridge starts to build in north of the storm toward the end of the run. Maine/Canada may get the remnants of Lee on the GFS (6z landfall near Maces Bay in New Brunswick after clipping the western edge of Nova Scotia). Bermuda needs to watch too based on CMC/UKMet (Canadian puts Bermuda in the dirty side of Lee at Cat 3). Too soon to tell really beyond 5 days. The turning point north, which is just beyond the NHC's forecast (roughly 7 days from now) will be likely one of the more interesting points to watch as the situation north of there at the time may indicate how far east or west Lee ultimately goes. |