IsoFlame
(Weather Analyst)
Tue Sep 12 2023 02:06 PM
Re: 97L - 98L Lounge

In the wake of Lee's weekend jaunt through the Canadian Maritime, I'm wondering if high pressure will eventually build next week, then strengthen as a re-enforcing high builds southward the following weekend, eventually setting up a 1030 mb (or stronger) ridge over and offshore from New England, possibly extending down the eastern seaboard the following week (as indicated by some modeling). If the high centers off the mid-Atlantic coast later in the month, it should effectively block any approaching TC and cut off the western Atlantic's "freeway" of Major re-curving hurricanes. Hopefully, none of the distant areas of concern progressing across the central Atlantic will gain longitude (before latitude) and possibly be blocked from re-curving well out to sea.

It's getting to be the time of year for strong/cool high pressure to eventually build southward down the eastern seaboard, along with the possibility of a stalled frontal boundary to lay up over the northern Gulf and extend across north Fla. It would not be of great surprise to me if "home-grown" tropical cyclogenesis occurs toward the end of Sept over the very warm waters of the GOMEX, SW Atlantic and western Caribbean.



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