| cieldumort |
| (Moderator) |
| Wed Sep 13 2023 12:38 PM |
|
Re: 97L - 98L Lounge
|
The first-out-of-the-gate wave, 97L, has indeed become the nucleus for tropical cyclone generation, with NHC flipping the odds (97L was just at 10% and 98L was at 70%), to 97L now being the system to track and at 80%, with 98L completely dropped.
This is an interesting development and could have some impacts on future track, which most models increasingly suggest is recurving out to sea. Nonetheless, 97L is at a lower latitude and has not yet developed, leaving open possibilities. There are some runs that do want to pull it back towards the northeastern CONUS and/or eastern Canada roughly ten days out, as these runs forecast high pressure building back in over the western Atlantic on top of it.
The title is being changed back to 97L now. NHC at 50% of TCG within two days and 80% within seven.
Quote:
ropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Wed Sep 13 2023
1. Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic (AL97):
A broad area of low pressure over the eastern tropical Atlantic continues to produce some disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Gradual development of this system is expected over the next few days while the system moves west-northwestward to northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, and a tropical depression is likely to form by this weekend over the central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.