| cieldumort |
| (Moderator) |
| Thu Sep 21 2023 12:08 PM |
|
Re: SIXTEEN
|
Recent Cyclone Phase modeling has largely forecast that SIXTEEN will straddle the line for quite a while between something that could at least casually be called a tropical cyclone, and something else. Most runs from most models have kept SIXTEEN on the asymmetric and neutral to cold core side of things (more non-tropical). However, judging from this morning's visible satellite images, those runs may be underdoing things a bit, and this is probably why NHC didn't waste any time going from 50% to PTC with watches and warnings at 11 this morning.
As a practical matter, SIXTEEN's impacts over water, along and near the coastlines, will largely be that of a tropical storm regardless of how SIXTEEN winds up technically. It is fair to call the system a developing "Tropical Cyclone-like" coastal low, and NHC does in fact make mention of this"
Quote:
"Although it is unclear as to whether the cyclone detaches from a front that is forecast to extend northeastward from the center, the guidance suggests a tropical-cyclone like core and structure when it nears the coast."
There is also a modest but real chance SIXTEEN becomes a hurricane.