NHC has very low (10%) chance for development in the south/central GOMEX. The "Yucatan Express" appears to kick in this week, and tropical moisture will surge north into the eastern Gulf of Mexico and get shunted across the Florida peninsula south of a stationary frontal boundary. Modeling is having a hard time figuring out where weak low pressure may develop (if at all) in the region , that is by all accounts (other than shear) ripe for development. Latest run of the GFS had high pressure building down the east coast into Florida, shunting a weak low off to the WSW over land. Have yet to see a run that gets my undivided attention, but would not be a surprise if modeling starts to hit on something a week or so away.

As with Idalia, if a weak low can stay off land and linger over warm water long enough, environmental parameters can eventually line up and development may occur rapidly. Seasonal climatology suggests probability in the western Caribbean and/or southern GOMEX.